Issue to the market of the Chinese COMAC C919 aircraft may not happen in principle

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From September 28 to October 3, Airshow China 2021 was held in China 2021. On it, as well as in the Russian Max, the innovations of civil and military aircraft enterprises will present, including from other countries of the world. One of the most anticipated machines of this air show was the Chinese medium-hydraulic aircraft COMAC C919. But, to deep regret, and this time this aircraft was not presented on this air show.

The thing is that China is very dependent on the supply of Western components. This list includes, including engines and avionics. Due to the above mentioned problems and problems with incorrect calculations in the design of the COMAC C919 aircraft — the release of the aircraft has fallen behind at least 5 years. And this is quite a lot in aviation, as it is still being developed and testing the aircraft — the competitors do not dreamed and produce all new cars to the market.

Because of more than a five-year lag from the schedule for the certification of this aircraft, the developers of this machine may lose their solid orders for COMAC C919. In addition, a long lag — can scare up new potential customers of the Chinese aircraft. And this is not a joke, especially since such giants like Boeing and Irbas from such a lag only acquire all new and new customers.

In addition, on the approach, the certification of the Russian middle-power aircraft MS-21, which we will not hide this fact, much better than the Chinese «fellow». And this has its good reasons. The fact is that Russia for decades has developed a powerful base of the aircraft industry. These are production facilities, research institutes and design bureaus. In addition, powerful and one of the best engineering industries in the world. In general, here Russia has more chances to occupy foreign markets, but this is all provided that the uninterrupted production and supply of components of customers will be provided.

This is where the «weak link» in Chinese aircraft is hidden. Due to the fact that the Chinese aircraft industry is very young, then he has those accommodated knowledge and technologies that Russia and the United States have, for example. The same COMAC C919 is very dependent on American technologies and the supply of American components. And now, after the start of the trade wars between China and the United States, the Chinese side, in general, risks to remain without its middle-high aircraft, so the dependence of the COMAC C919 in American components is critical.

China and the purchase of European components will not save, since they will have to be ordered so that the correction of technical indicators and characteristics of the Chinese aircraft will be necessary. And here, China has something to learn from Russia. After 2014, a large number of all sorts of restrictions were imposed on our country, including civilian aircraft. As a result, in our country has established their own production of components and systems that are not inferior to Western counterparts. And it is clear that over time — the characteristics and quality of Russian components will only increase.

Of course, the limitations affected the certification of MS-21, and now on the production of SSJ-100, but a well-thought-out government policy on timely import substitution — helped Russia more or less to test the aircraft. And now MS-21 has its own domestic composite wing, its engines and avionics.

China is also being taken by China, but in view of the fact that the Chinese COMAC C919 is now very much depends on deliveries from abroad, the question of the deadlines for the delivery of the aircraft for certification within China and abroad to start its production — remains open. After all, while China does not get rid of risks from the breakdown of supplies of components, and rather, it does not establish its own production in China Chinese engines, avionics and other important aggregates and aircraft nodes — no matter how COMAC C919 can, in principle, do not speak. Naturally, a replacement for the American aircraft engine and other units is created, but it is specifically to speak about their reliability very early.

Speaking easier until China holds import substitution — there will be no Chinese aircraft. And this means that the issue of the Chinese COMAC C919 market may not happen in principle or it will delay in many years, because the mass production of the aircraft and its supply to customers will depend on the supply of necessary components: engines, aggregates, avionics from the USA. And since, Western companies will not want to release the wide market of the Chinese aircraft, even inside China itself, then this aircraft will have to wait for at least 3-5 years.

Thus, in the coming years, it is possible to extend to the market only by Russian MS-21, and this is a positive coincidence of circumstances. Well, and so, the United States makes themselves worse, imposing on Russia and China restrictions on aircraft and engineering, since these countries develop their branches in this area. The United States simply lose the markets of these countries and, among other things, the dominant position in the field of aircraft. However, whether it is so, will tell time.

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